2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

Tracks of All Hurricanes in 2022

As we approach the 2023 hurricane season, experts are predicting an above-average level of activity in the Atlantic basin.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

While there is no way to predict the exact number of storms that will form or the path they will take, meteorologists use a variety of factors to make a forecast for the upcoming season. In this article, we'll take a look at the hurricane season forecast for 2023 and what it could mean for those in the potential path of these storms.

Factors Affecting the 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

Before we dive into the forecast, let's first take a look at some of the factors that can affect hurricane activity in a given season. These factors include:

1. Sea Surface Temperatures: Warm sea surface temperatures can provide the energy needed for tropical storms and hurricanes to form and strengthen.

2. El Niño/La Niña: El Niño can increase wind shear, making it difficult for storms to form and intensify. La Niña, on the other hand, can reduce wind shear and increase storm activity.

3. African Easterly Waves: These waves can serve as the seed for many tropical storms and hurricanes.

4. Vertical Wind Shear: Strong winds aloft can prevent storms from forming or intensifying.

5. Climate Change: While climate change cannot be directly attributed to individual storms, it can impact sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions, potentially leading to more frequent and intense storms.

Ocean Surface Temperature Map April 29, 2023 Used in Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast for the 2023 Hurricane Season

Now that we've covered some of the factors that can affect hurricane activity, let's take a look at the forecast for the 2023 hurricane season.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 hurricane season is expected to be above average in terms of storm activity. NOAA predicts that there will be between 14 and 20 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).

“NOAA predicts that there will be between 14 and 20 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).”

This forecast is based on a variety of factors, including the expected absence of El Niño and the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. These conditions are favorable for storm formation and intensification.

It's worth noting that while the overall forecast is for an above-average season, it's impossible to predict the exact path that these storms will take or the exact number of storms that will form. It's always important to stay informed and prepared during hurricane season, regardless of the forecast.

NOAA Tropical Weather Forecast hasn’t changed since January

Preparing for the 2023 Hurricane Season

Regardless of the forecast, it's important to take steps to prepare for hurricane season. Here are a few tips to keep in mind:

1. Create an Emergency Kit: Put together a kit with essential items like food, water, medication, and first aid supplies.

2. Know Your Evacuation Route: Familiarize yourself with the evacuation routes in your area and have a plan in place.

3. Review Your Insurance Policy: Make sure you have adequate insurance coverage in the event of a storm.

4. Stay Informed: Monitor local news and weather reports for updates on storm activity.

5. Have a Communication Plan: Make a plan for how you will communicate with family and friends in the event of an emergency.

Conclusion

The 2023 hurricane season is expected to be above average in terms of storm activity, with between 14 and 20 named storms predicted. While it's impossible to predict the exact path these storms will take or the exact number of storms that will form, it's important to stay informed and prepared during hurricane season. By following these tips and staying up-to-date on the latest news and weather reports, we can all work to minimize the impact of hurricanes and keep our communities safe.